By Harsh V Pant and Vivek Mishra, The Democratic National Convention (DNC) unfolded in Chicago over four days last week, marking a defining moment in the 2024 US presidential campaign. This year’s DNC saw a groundswell of voter enthusiasm and the historic nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate. The party’s old guard, including the Clintons and the Obamas, threw their full support behind Harris, setting the stage for a unified front. In stark contrast, the Republican National Convention (RNC) held in Milwaukee in mid-July was notable for the absence of its traditional leadership, highlighting the growing division within the GOP between pre- and post-Trump factions. This division has reshuffled the Republican voter base, complicating Donald Trump’s path to a potential comeback. For the Democratic Party, the DNC was a critical inflection point. Party delegates rallied behind Harris, who, if elected, would be the first woman of Black and South Asian descent to serve as president. High-profile endorsements, including a strong show of support from President Biden, former presidents, first ladies, and influential party leaders like Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, and JB Pritzker bolstered Harris’ candidacy. This wave of endorsements, coupled with appearances by celebrities, has energised the Democratic base and ignited hopes of swaying undecided voters. Post-DNC polling indicates that Harris has gained a slight lead over Trump, with some surveys showing a 3-4 point advantage. However, the race remains tight in battleground states like Arizona, where Trump still holds a narrow lead within the margin of error. In the broader Sun Belt region — encompassing Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina — the candidates are neck and neck, each holding slight leads in two states. A new way forward Harris has positioned herself as the candidate of change, rallying behind the slogan “A New Way Forward”. Despite the Democratic Party being the incumbent, Harris has marketed herself as a fresh force, breaking historical barriers and promising renewed energy for the White House. Her campaign’s ability to raise $82 million in the week of the DNC and nearly $550 million in the last month has set a record, defying expectations given Harris’s previous track record as Vice President and her earlier presidential run in 2020. While the DNC has clearly energised the party, Democratic strategists are cautiously optimistic, wary of a potential “polling bounce” that might fade as media attention shifts. This is reminiscent of Trump’s brief surge following the assassination attempt against him, which temporarily boosted his numbers against Biden. The real test for Harris will be whether her post-DNC momentum can be sustained through to the election. Debates The outcome of the 2024 election will likely hinge on a few key swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. While Harris has made slight gains in these states post-DNC, Trump remains competitive, trailing by only a few points. As the race goes down to the wire, the battle for delegates will be crucial, as the popular vote margins remain tight. Trump’s addition of two former Democrats in his transition team, Robert F Kennedy Jr and Tulsi Gabbard — the former joining forces with Trump by giving up his presidential run as an independent — could be a key decision to swell Republican votes. With just over 70 days left until the election, one of the closest races in recent history could still swing in either direction. The coming weeks will test both candidates’ abilities to shape voter perceptions on critical policy issues. Already, economic policy debates, particularly on taxes and tariffs, have taken centre stage. Trump, leveraging his legacy of tax cuts from his first term, has hinted at further reductions should he win, while Harris has countered with a “tax-the-rich” approach, spotlighting Trump’s own wealth. Both, however, agree on “no tax on tips”, vying for the favour of middle-class voters. The issue of tariffs represents a major shift in US economic policy thinking. Since Trump’s first term, the broad bipartisan consensus on free trade has been challenged, influenced by the pandemic and growing concerns over China’s economic rise and use of unfair trade practices. Harris, while differing from Trump’s aggressive tariff stance, has not completely dismissed the idea of protectionist measures, suggesting that her administration might take a more guarded approach to trade than past Democratic presidents. Also ReadPlay by the rule book As the campaign intensifies, key issues like immigration, healthcare, and foreign policy remain flashpoints. Protests outside the DNC by pro-Palestinian groups underscored the challenges Harris faces in navigating the complex international order and American leadership. These and other critical topics will likely dominate the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump, set to take place in Philadelphia on September 10. However this time, Trump’s quintessential tactic of attacking his opponent based on style, political leaning, and even appearance may not work against Harris. In fact, it could benefit her. In a sign of how close the contest is, the two leaders are sparring over the logistics of the debate with the Harris campaign asking for the microphones to be muted when it is the other person’s turn to speak. For the Harris campaign, this would be one way of showing the “real” Donald Trump to the rest of the world. It is hoping that Trump’s tendency to interrupt and be ill-tempered through the course of the debate will bring out the contrast between the two leaders more starkly. This is sign of how high the stakes are both sides in a contest that is likely to go down the wire. (Harsh V. Pant is the vice-president for studies and foreign policy, and Vivek Mishra is a fellow for the Americas at ORF, Delhi.) Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
